THE COVER | NFL FUTURES Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 Futures Profile

Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Division: NFC South
2025 Record: 8-9
2026 Projected Win Total: 8.5
Super Bowl Odds: +5500
NFC Championship: +2200
NFC South: +164
Make Playoffs: +130

Odds captured: September 3, 2026 | Odds subject to change

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are entering 2026 in an interesting position.

For four consecutive seasons, Tampa Bay won the NFC South. That streak came to an end last season when the Buccaneers finished 8-9 and watched Carolina claim the division on a tiebreaker.

The question is whether Tampa Bay can bounce back or whether 2025 was the beginning of a larger decline.

DraftKings currently has Tampa Bay's win total at 8.5, with the Under priced at -136 and the Over at +115. The Buccaneers are +164 to win the NFC South, +2200 to win the NFC and +5500 to win the Super Bowl, while they are +130 to make the playoffs.

Bucs Still Favored

The Buccaneers are still the favorite to win the NFC South, but the market is clearly less enthusiastic about them than it was a year ago. Tampa Bay opened 2025 with a 9.5-win total and finished with only eight victories. The Bucs also lost seven of their final nine games after their bye, including narrow losses to all three division rivals.

The bigger concern is that Tampa Bay lost several longtime contributors during the offseason.

Mike Evans is now in San Francisco, Lavonte David is gone, and Jamel Dean also departed after ranking among the league's better cornerbacks in 2025.

At the same time, the Buccaneers are betting that Baker Mayfield, a talented young receiving corps and a reworked defense can keep them in contention.

Offensive Grade: B+

There is still plenty to like about Tampa Bay's offense.

Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton and Bucky Irving give the Buccaneers a talented collection of skill-position players.

Mayfield remains the most important piece. He has emerged as a top-tier quarterback in the league.

After throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2024, Mayfield's production dipped in 2025. He completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while adding 382 rushing yards and another touchdown.

Those numbers are still more than good enough to support a playoff-caliber offense.

The bigger challenge will be replacing Evans.

The future Hall of Famer left Tampa Bay after 11 seasons, leaving behind one of the most productive careers in franchise history. That puts additional pressure on a receiving group that will now be led by Godwin and Egbuka.

Egbuka is particularly intriguing.

The 2025 first-round pick had an outstanding rookie season, catching 63 passes for 938 yards and six touchdowns while earning PFWA All-Rookie Team honors. He is expected to have a more defined role in 2026, primarily working from the Z position.

Godwin should also benefit from returning to a more familiar role in the slot. The Buccaneers have emphasized his versatility and ability to create yards after the catch, and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson appears intent on moving him around the formation.

Then there is Bucky Irving.

After rushing for 1,122 yards as a rookie, Irving was limited to 10 games in 2025 and finished with 588 rushing yards and 277 receiving yards. If he can stay healthy, he gives Tampa Bay a dynamic runner capable of creating explosive plays both on the ground and through the air.

The offensive line also remains a strength, with Tristan Wirfs anchoring the unit.

There is enough talent here to produce another productive season.

But losing Evans is significant, and Tampa Bay will need someone to replace the consistency and red-zone production that he provided for more than a decade.

Defensive Grade: B-

The defense is where Tampa Bay becomes much more difficult to evaluate.

There are legitimate reasons for optimism, particularly under head coach Todd Bowles.

Since Bowles arrived in Tampa Bay in 2019, his defenses have been among the league's best at stopping the run and generating pressure. Over that span, Tampa Bay ranks first in the NFL in quarterback pressures, third in sacks and first in rushing yards allowed per game.

But the 2025 version of the defense was inconsistent.

The Buccaneers finished fifth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, but they ranked 27th against the pass and 32nd in red-zone touchdown percentage. They also ranked 24th in sacks per pass attempt.

Those are difficult numbers to overcome.

Tampa Bay responded by making significant changes.

The Buccaneers added veteran linebacker Alex Anzalone, defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson and edge rusher Al-Quadin Muhammad, while also selecting edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. in the first round and linebacker Josiah Trotter in the second.

Bain could be particularly important.

The first-round pick gives Tampa Bay another young pass-rushing option, while Robinson and Anzalone bring veteran experience to a defense that lost both David and several other contributors.

The secondary is a bigger concern.

Jamel Dean departed after a strong 2025 season, creating another hole in a unit that will need to lean heavily on players such as Antoine Winfield Jr. and the remaining young defensive backs.

The Bet: Under 8.5 Wins (-136)

This is where Tampa Bay becomes a fascinating futures proposition.

An 8.5-win total feels high for a team that went 8-9 last season, lost seven of its final nine games and now has to replace several important veterans.

The market has already moved in that direction.

Tampa Bay opened the offseason with a 9.5-win total, but DraftKings has now dropped the number to 8.5 and heavily juiced the Under.

That is significant.

The Buccaneers have finished with at least eight wins in each of the last six seasons, so betting against them to reach nine victories carries some risk. But the roster is not obviously better than the one that finished 8-9 a year ago.

The schedule isn't brutal, which makes this bet less straightforward. Tampa Bay avoids a first-place schedule and doesn't have consecutive road games on the 2026 slate. But there are still difficult matchups against the Rams, Cowboys, Chargers, Ravens and Lions.

The biggest reason to lean Under is that Tampa Bay's margin for error appears considerably smaller than it was a year ago.

Mayfield needs to remain healthy and efficient.

Irving needs to stay on the field.

Egbuka needs to take another step forward.

The defense definitely needs to improve significantly.

That's a lot of variables for an 8-9 team to overcome in order to cash an Over 8.5 ticket.

The play: Under 8.5 wins (-136).

Tampa Bay should remain competitive in the NFC South, but getting to nine victories requires too many things to go right.

Projected Record: 8-9

Futures Verdict: UNDER 8.5 WINS