Week 10 of the NFL season is upon us, and the race to the playoffs has officially begun. There is clear dominance in the form of two Goliath teams in the AFC and NFC, with the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers looking like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Will this inevitably be the ultimate Super Bowl matchup?
Bills Mafia is looking to cap its dream season with exactly that, hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. This week might be easy pickings for Josh Allen and the Bills, but it is precisely these types of games where Buffalo has let its guard down, handing its fans a frustrating loss or failing to cover the spread.
Here are The Cover's picks for Week 10, with hopes of improving upon last week's performance. We start with a banger of a Thursday night matchup before turning our attention to Sunday's slate, including an early kickoff featuring Detroit and New England on the sacred grounds of Bayern Munich FC in Germany.
Here's what's in store for Week 10:
TNF: Washington Commanders (+2½) at New York Giants
Washington is our opening selection, taking the points against a Giants team that has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the NFC. New York enters Week 10 with a 5-2-1 record, but Washington has enough divisional familiarity to keep this one competitive. The Commanders have scored 172 points through eight games, and getting 2½ points makes them an appealing underdog.
Sunday, November 15
9:30 AM ET · INTERNATIONAL GAME · MUNICH, GERMANY
New England Patriots (+2½) at Detroit Lions
The early Sunday morning kickoff brings us to Munich, where New England gets the nod against Detroit. The Patriots are 5-4 and have shown considerable improvement this season, while Drake Maye has already thrown for 2,282 yards and 18 touchdowns through nine games. Detroit is a formidable opponent, but we like New England to keep this one within a field goal.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3½) at Atlanta Falcons
Kansas City continues to look like a legitimate contender in the AFC. At 6-2, the Chiefs have outscored their opponents by 59 points this season, and Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,037 yards and 14 touchdowns. Atlanta, meanwhile, sits at 3-6. We like Kansas City to win this one by at least a touchdown.
Houston Texans (-4½) at Cleveland Browns
Houston gets the nod here, despite a somewhat misleading 3-5 record. The Texans have actually outscored their opponents by 17 points this season, suggesting they have been considerably more competitive than their record indicates. Cleveland is 5-4, but we see Houston's potential for a strong second half of the season beginning here.
C.J. Stroud has already thrown for 2,251 yards and 16 touchdowns, giving Houston a capable offensive leader as it looks to make a push up the AFC South standings. We expect the Texans to cover.
Minnesota Vikings (+3½) at Green Bay Packers
Minnesota is our underdog selection in this NFC North matchup. Despite dropping two consecutive games, the Vikings are 6-2 and have allowed just 116 points through eight games, one of the better defensive totals in the league. Green Bay is a respectable 6-3, but giving Minnesota more than a field goal feels generous. We will take the points.
Miami Dolphins (+3½) at Indianapolis Colts
Miami has endured a difficult campaign, but we are willing to take a chance on the Dolphins here. Indianapolis has struggled considerably, sitting at 2-7 and having surrendered 249 points. Miami has managed just one victory, but this is an opportunity to take advantage of a favourable divisional-style matchup against a struggling opponent.
New Orleans Saints (-2½) at Carolina Panthers
The Saints are another team whose record doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. At 3-5, New Orleans has struggled to find consistency, but Carolina is also below .500 at 3-5. The Saints have scored 185 points this season and should have enough offensive firepower to get past a Panthers defence that has allowed 219. We will take New Orleans to win and cover.
Buffalo Bills (-8) at New York Jets
Here we go again. Buffalo has been one of the most dominant teams in football, entering Week 10 at 7-1 and averaging an impressive 32 points per game. The Jets are 2-7, and this is precisely the kind of matchup where Buffalo should impose its will.
Josh Allen has accounted for 21 total touchdowns this season, with 12 through the air and another nine on the ground. That dual-threat ability makes the Bills exceptionally difficult to contain. The eight-point spread is substantial, but we are backing Buffalo to take care of business.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10½) at Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville has quietly put together one of the strongest seasons in football. At 6-2, the Jaguars have outscored their opponents by 108 points, the best differential in the league through Week 9. Tennessee, meanwhile, has managed just one victory in eight games. Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 1,932 yards and 18 touchdowns through eight games.
Jacksonville's 108-point differential is a particularly compelling indicator of its dominance this season.
We are taking the Jaguars to win comfortably and cover the 10½-point spread.
Los Angeles Rams (-9½) at Arizona Cardinals
The Rams have found their footing after an inconsistent start, winning three consecutive games to improve to 5-4. Matthew Stafford has thrown for 2,374 yards and 16 touchdowns, while Los Angeles has scored 214 points through nine games. Arizona has struggled defensively, allowing 255 points, and we expect the Rams to take advantage. Give us Los Angeles by double digits.
Seattle Seahawks (-6½) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are our underdog selection here. Las Vegas has struggled to find consistency, but its offence has managed 238 points through nine games. Seattle enters at 5-4 and has allowed 162 points, making this a potentially difficult matchup for the home side. Still, we like the Raiders to stay competitive enough to cover the 6½ points.
San Francisco 49ers (-4½) at Dallas Cowboys
The 49ers are another team that has looked every bit the championship contender. San Francisco enters at 7-1, with a league-leading 29.4 points per game and a point differential of plus-79. Brock Purdy has thrown for 1,980 yards and 17 touchdowns, and the offence has been remarkably efficient. Dallas has been competitive offensively, but we like San Francisco to win by at least a touchdown.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3½) at Cincinnati Bengals
Our final Sunday selection takes us to the AFC North, where Pittsburgh gets the points against Cincinnati. Both teams enter at 6-2, but the Steelers have been particularly impressive defensively, allowing just 144 points through eight games. T.J. Watt has already recorded 7½ sacks, giving Pittsburgh a disruptive presence capable of making life difficult for opposing quarterbacks. We like the Steelers to keep this one close, and perhaps pull off the outright upset.
Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Chargers (+4½) at Baltimore Ravens
We close out Week 10 with another underdog selection, taking the Chargers and the points against Baltimore. The Chargers are winless at 0-8, so this is certainly a gamble on a team that has given us very little reason for optimism. However, Baltimore is just 4-5 and has struggled to find consistency of its own. We are looking for Los Angeles to make this a competitive Monday night affair and cover the 4½ points.
The Cover's Week 10 outlook: With Buffalo and San Francisco leading the way, we're looking for a strong week from our selections, particularly with several underdogs offering attractive opportunities to make things interesting. Let's get after it!
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