Off the Cover Picks NFL Week 4

Off the Cover hit the target perfectly on Thursday night as Deshaun Watson rose to the occasion, leading Cleveland into field goal range before Andre Szmyt drilled a career long 56 yard field goal with 10 seconds remaining. The Browns escaped Pittsburgh 27 24, giving us a strong start to Week 4. Reuters

For the remainder of the picks:

• Washington +3.5 at Indianapolis: The Colts have been inconsistent, while Washington enters London with confidence after beating Seattle. Even without Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have enough defense to stay within the number. NFL
• Buffalo -7.5 vs. New England: Buffalo is 3 0 and has been producing points at a much higher rate than New England. Drake Maye and the Patriots offense have struggled to generate consistently, making the Bills the pick. NFL
• NY Jets +3.5 at Chicago: The Jets have been competitive late in all three games, and their defense has shown enough to keep this close. With Breece Hall among New York's injuries, Chicago has the edge, but the Jets can cover. NFL
• Cincinnati -2.5 vs. Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence has played well through three weeks, but Cincinnati is at home and should find enough offense to hold off a dangerous Jaguars team. NFL
• Arizona -1.5 at NY Giants: Arizona has quietly played solid football, while the Giants continue to deal with questions throughout their roster. Take the Cardinals to win a competitive road game.
• LA Rams +1.5 at Philadelphia: The Rams blew a big lead in Denver, while Philadelphia was embarrassed in Chicago. Both should respond, but the points make Los Angeles the play. The expected return of Puka Nacua also helps the Rams. NFL
• Green Bay -3.5 at Tampa Bay: Green Bay needs a response after its ugly Week 3 loss. Tampa Bay is still searching for its first win, and the Packers should create enough pressure to win by more than a field goal.
• Baltimore -11.5 vs. Tennessee: Baltimore has too much firepower for a winless Titans team that has struggled to start games. Derrick Henry facing his former team adds another storyline, but the Ravens should control this one. NFL
• Houston -2.5 vs. Dallas: The Texans are 0 3, but this is an opportunity to finally get their offense moving. C.J. Stroud needs help from Nico Collins, who returned to practice, while Dallas continues to deal with defensive injuries. NFL
• Minnesota -10.5 vs. Miami: The Vikings are 3 0, while Miami is 0 3 and now without De'Von Achane. Minnesota's defense should overwhelm a Dolphins offense that has yet to score more than 13 points in a game. NFL
• Kansas City -5.5 at Las Vegas: Both teams are undefeated, making this one of the week's most intriguing games. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have the experience to win a close one and cover. NFL
• Denver +3.5 at San Francisco: Brock Purdy has been excellent, but Denver has already shown it can rally against quality opponents. The Broncos have enough defense to make this uncomfortable for San Francisco. NFL
• LA Chargers +6.5 at Seattle: Seattle is coming off a surprising loss in Washington, while Los Angeles desperately needs a response. The Chargers may not win, but six and a half points is enough to take them. NFL
• Detroit -3.5 at Carolina: Detroit's defense has been vulnerable, but the Lions have too many offensive weapons for Carolina to keep pace. Expect Detroit to win on the road and cover. NFL
• Atlanta +2.5 at New Orleans: The Saints have been close in their losses, but Atlanta's defense has shown improvement. Michael Penix Jr. looked impressive in his 2026 debut, and this feels like a field goal game. Take the Falcons and the points. NFL

Off the Cover got the Week 4 party started perfectly on Thursday night. Now we turn our attention to the remaining 15 games, looking to keep the target firmly in sight and add another strong week to the record.