NFLANALYSIS

NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Commanders +5.5 to Cover vs Eagles

5.5 points feels like a lot. Especially against Jayden Daniels, and an upgraded offense with newly acquired weapons.

Doug Whiteside
Doug Whiteside
Editor in Chief
Sep 13, 2026233 min read
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders, NFL

Washington vs. Philadelphia, a quintessential NFL and All-American battle, highlights the second slot of games in Week 1 of the NFL season.

The scheduling and hype surrounding the games so far have been both intriguing and bearing some resemblance to a long-awaited heavyweight boxing match. With additional nights tentatively added, the NFL launched somewhat of a surprising dud in the Wednesday night opener in Seattle.

The Super Bowl LX rematch saw the New England Patriots cover the spread by keeping the game within a field goal, despite losing 13-10. The low-scoring affair was a contrast to the 27-13 Seahawks win last February, but the end result for Drake Maye and a slightly revamped Patriots offense was the same: another loss on the grandest of stages.

Surprising also was the following evening in Melbourne, when the San Francisco 49ers dismantled a Rams defense that was missing Aaron Donald, who did not make the flight to Australia, and that looked discombobulated for most of the game.

A statement-making 27-7 opening win for the Niners over the favoured Rams was a surprise bordering on outright shock. Certainly, the Rams will live to fight another day, but it appears they have a lot of work to do, especially in assimilating a defense with new faces and impact players at pivotal positions.

The two opening games offered a moderately satisfying segue to today’s full slate.

Some Interesting 1 p.m. Openers

Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -1.5

The first regular-season game at Buffalo’s new Highmark Stadium will have to wait until Week 2, but this is still an intriguing opening-day matchup between two teams with legitimate postseason aspirations.

Houston has the defensive personnel to make life difficult for Josh Allen, while Buffalo enters the season with enormous expectations. Getting less than a field goal with the Texans makes this an interesting opening-week betting proposition.

Lean: Texans +1.5

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Ravens -3.5

The Ravens are deservedly favoured, but Indy may be a team that is being underestimated entering the season. The Colts showed flashes of success last year before their season collapsed, and there is enough talent on this roster to make Baltimore uncomfortable, particularly at home.

Baltimore is the better team on paper, but laying more than a field goal on the road in Week 1 could prove costly.

Lean: Colts +3.5

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Eagles -5.5

This could be the game of the day.

Philadelphia enters as the defending NFC power and is understandably favoured at home. The Eagles possess an established offensive identity, a talented defense and of course, Jalen Hurts at quarterback.

5.5 points feels like a lot. Especially against Jayden Daniels, and an offense with a new cast of receivers.

Daniels’ rookie season established him as one of the NFL’s most electrifying players, before a serious knee injury disrupted his second campaign before it hit the halfway mark. Now seemingly healthy, he has an opportunity to remind the NFL just why many believe he can still be the All-Pro quarterback that has been missing in the capital, since RG3 took the league by storm, and led them to an NFC East title more than a decade ago. 

The Commanders have also surrounded Daniels  with additional support, including Stefon Diggs, while Terry McLaurin remains one of the league’s more dangerous receivers.

Daniels himself is the key to making this potentially potent offense, all come together.

Philly can generate pressure. It can make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable. There is no doubt the Eagles are more than capable of winning this game.

What the Eagles may struggle to do however, is completely contain a quarterback capable of turning a broken play into 15 or 20 yards.

That is enormously important when we’re looking at about a 5.5-point spread.

Washington doesn’t have to win this game.

It simply has to stay within six points.

There is little reason to believe Daniels won’t be capable of doing that.

The Pick: Commanders Cover in Philly


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