The Champs Open Week One, But 49ers V. Rams Is the Better Spread Play

The NFL is back!, and it starts with the defending champion Seattle Seahawks hosting the team they beat in Super Bowl LX.

Seattle is currently a 3.5 point favourite over the New England Patriots, with the total sitting at 44.5. The Seahawks return home to raise their championship banner, but this is a difficult spread to love.

New England has made significant additions since that Super Bowl loss, including A.J. Brown, while Seattle has lost Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III. The Patriots also know exactly what happened the last time these teams met, and asking Seattle to win by four or more against a team that was good enough to reach the Super Bowl feels like a dangerous proposition.

For us, the much more interesting spread comes tomorrow night in Melbourne. The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5 point favourites over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL’s first ever regular season game in Australia. The projected points total is 48.5.

Niners To Cover In Melbs

First, this is a divisional rivalry between two teams that know each other extremely well. Getting 3.5 points in a game that could easily come down to the final possession is valuable. This is of course, a neutral field, not a Rams home game, and the travel situation is fascinating. San Francisco arrived in Australia eight days before kickoff specifically to acclimate to the massive time difference. The Rams took the opposite approach, arriving roughly 24 hours before the game. Aaron Donald's much anticipated return will also have to wait, as he opted out of travelling with the team for week one in Australia.

That makes the 49ers plus 3.5 particularly appealing. The Niners also expect Nick Bosa to return from his ACL injury, while George Kittle is trending toward playing. Those are significant additions to a team getting more than a field goal.

The Seahawks are the champs. They deserve to open the season under the bright lights with the banner going up.

In terms of the spread, I am much more interested in taking the points tomorrow.

The Cover Play: 49ers +3.5

The number gives us protection in what should be a tightly contested NFC West battle, while the neutral field and San Francisco’s preparation for the trip make the 49ers particularly attractive.

Give me the points in Melbourne.