THE COVER | NFL FUTURES Las Vegas Raiders 2026 Futures Profile

Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Division: AFC West
2025 Record: 3-14
2026 Projected Win Total: 5.5
Super Bowl Odds: +15000
AFC Championship: +6600
AFC West: +2000
Make Playoffs: +600

Odds captured: September 2, 2026 | Odds subject to change

The market isn't expecting much from Las Vegas in 2026. The Raiders enter the season with the lowest projected win total in the AFC West at 5.5, and their +15000 Super Bowl price makes them one of the longest shots on the board. DraftKings currently has Las Vegas at +2000 to win the division, +6600 to win the AFC and +600 to make the playoffs. The Over 5.5 wins has become increasingly popular, however, and is currently priced at -150.

Offensive Grade: B-

There is reason for optimism in Las Vegas, even if the market isn't ready to buy the Raiders as a contender. In a scenario where the chips fall perfectly as planned, the Raiders represent what might just be, the best possible return on investment, as an AFC West dark horse.

The biggest change comes at the top. Klint Kubiak takes over as head coach after helping guide Seattle to a Super Bowl championship, bringing with him an offensive philosophy built around movement, multiple running backs and creating easier opportunities for the quarterback. The Raiders have also hired Andrew Janocko as offensive coordinator. Janocko served as the QB coach in Seattle, and should apply Kubiak's system rather seamlessly.

At quarterback, the Raiders have a high-profile, and most intriguing combination to start the season. Veteran Kirk Cousins is expected to start, while No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza waits in the wings. Kubiak has not publicly committed to a long-term quarterback, and Cousins' experience could give Mendoza valuable time to develop rather than forcing the rookie into the lineup immediately.

The skill-position group has genuine building blocks. Brock Bowers is already one of the NFL's most dangerous tight ends, while Ashton Jeanty remains the centerpiece of the running game after rushing for 975 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. Jeanty is currently dealing with an ankle injury, although the organization remains optimistic about his recovery. Mike Washington Jr. has also emerged as an intriguing complementary back after an impressive preseason.

The offensive line may ultimately determine how far this unit can go. The additions of center Tyler Linderbaum and guard Spencer Burford give the Raiders a significantly different interior, while Kolton Miller remains an important piece at left tackle. Kubiak's system should help, but there are still questions about whether Las Vegas has enough proven receiving talent to consistently threaten opposing defenses vertically.

This isn't an offense built to carry the Raiders to the Super Bowl this season. It might be considerably better than the unit that produced just a three-win season in 2025 though.

Defensive Grade: C+

The defense is where the Raiders face their biggest questions.

Defensive End Maxx Crosby remains the unquestioned centerpiece, and Malcolm Koonce gives Las Vegas another established edge presence. The Raiders also added linebackers including Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, while veteran defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi provides additional size up front.

Rob Leonard has been promoted from defensive line coach to defensive coordinator, taking over a defense that is listed as a 3-4 alignment. Leonard is familiar with the roster, but this is his first season calling an NFL defense, creating another variable for a young team.

The secondary remains a concern. Las Vegas added veteran cornerback Darrell Luter Jr. on September 1 after claiming him off waivers from San Francisco, while young players such as Jermod McCoy and Treydan Stukes will be asked to develop quickly.

There is talent here, but not enough proven depth to project towards a top-half NFL defense. Crosby can change games by himself, but the Raiders need considerably more consistency around him.

The defense therefore looks more like a work in progress than a finished product.

The Bet

The obvious question is whether 5.5 wins is too low.

The market has moved toward Las Vegas. The Raiders opened the offseason with a heavily juiced Under position, but by September the Over 5.5 has become the more expensive side at -150. DraftKings betting splits have also shown significant support for the Over, with 91% of the reported handle backing Las Vegas to reach six wins.

Vegas is definitely one of the more interesting low-end futures teams in the NFL.

The schedule provides a path. The Raiders open at home against Miami, currently laying 3.5 points, before traveling to the Chargers and Saints. Kansas City then visits Allegiant Stadium before the Raiders travel to New England.

There are also some winnable games later in the year against Cleveland, Tennessee, Arizona and the Jets, while the Raiders get both the Chargers and Broncos at home in December.

The problem is the AFC West.

Kansas City, Los Angeles and Denver all have substantially higher expectations, with current projected win totals of 10.5, 9.5 and 9.5 respectively. The Raiders are priced at +2000 to win the division, making them a massive longshot compared with the three established contenders.

Over 5.5 wins at -150 is considerably more attractive than taking a flier on the Raiders at +2000 to win the AFC West.

The Raiders don't need to become a playoff team for the Over to cash. They simply need to improve from three wins to six.

That is a reasonable expectation.

The Cover's Verdict: Over 5.5 Wins (-150)

Las Vegas is not ready to be considered a serious Super Bowl contender. The +15000 Super Bowl price tells us exactly what the market thinks of the Raiders' chances, and there are simply too many questions on defense, along the offensive line and at quarterback to recommend a championship wager.

The win-total market is a different story.

Kubiak represents a legitimate schematic upgrade. Cousins gives the offense veteran stability, while Mendoza provides enormous long-term upside. Bowers and Jeanty give the Raiders two legitimate offensive building blocks, and Crosby remains capable of wrecking a game from the defensive side.

The Raiders won only three games last season. Asking them to get to six is a much smaller leap than asking them to become a playoff team.

Five-and-a-half wins is a low bar. Take the Over.

Odds subject to change. Gambling involves risk. Check local regulations and current sportsbook prices before wagering.