THE COVER | NFL FUTURES Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 Futures Profile

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Division: AFC South
2025 Record: 13-4
2026 Projected Win Total: 8.5
Super Bowl Odds: +3000
AFC Championship: +1500
AFC South: +245
Make Playoffs: +105

Odds referenced from current 2026 markets and subject to change.

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter 2026 in a truly strange position.

They're coming off a 13-4 season and an AFC South championship, but nobody seems sold on the idea that the Jags can repeat, or surpass that performance.

That skepticism is especially peculiar given the fact that Jacksonville, led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, won eight straight games to close the season last year before falling to the Bills in the playoff Wild Card round. Prognosticators believe that late season surge may have been a fluke. Lawrence's numbers though, in the second half especially, were remarkable.

He threw for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns, both among the best marks of his career, while leading the Jaguars to their second-best regular-season record in team history. Perhaps it is just plain uncertainty of Lawrence's supporting cast on offense, that has the market so skeptical.

Offensive Grade: B+

After Lawrence, Jacksonville's offense isn't loaded with household names, but there is plenty of young talent.

Brian Thomas Jr. remains the biggest downfield threat. The former LSU standout enters his third NFL season after producing a decent 707 receiving yards and two touchdowns through 14 games in 2025. That said, Parker Washington quietly led Jacksonville in receiving yards.

Travis Etienne is gone. He led the team with 1,107 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 2025. Jacksonville now has to replace that production through some combination of Bhayshul Tuten, LeQuint Allen Jr. and Chris Rodriguez Jr.

There is new depth in the tight end position, as Jacksonville drafted Nate Boerkircher and Tanner Koziol, joining Brenton Strange. So while the reliable and productive, Etienne has moved on to New Orleans, the new cast of offensive weapons should assimilate well into coach Liam Coen's offense, and provide Lawrence with plenty of options. The only glaring concern as the season begins, is the turnover on the O-Line from last season.

That might be what is preventing the win projection from living in the double digits. With the lack of experience on the line, Jacksonville finished training camp working primarily with Anton Harrison at left tackle, rookie Emmanuel Pregnon at left guard, Robert Hainsey at center, Ezra Cleveland at right guard and Walker Little at right tackle. This is a young unit, that will be tasked with keeping Lawrence off the injured list.

Defensive Grade: B+

Jacksonville's defense was one of the biggest reasons the Jaguars were able to win 13 games in 2025.

The unit finished eighth in the NFL in points allowed, surrendering just 19.8 points per game, while forcing 31 takeaways. The Jaguars were particularly effective against the run, allowing only 3.9 yards per carry.

Josh Hines-Allen remains the centerpiece of the pass rush, while Devin Lloyd emerged as a difference-maker at linebacker after recording five interceptions in 2025. Foyesade Oluokun provides veteran stability in the middle of the defense.

The biggest question is whether Jacksonville can maintain that level of defensive efficiency.

The Jaguars don't necessarily need to become an elite defense to contend in the AFC South. If they can remain a top-10 unit while Trevor Lawrence continues to develop, Jacksonville has a legitimate path back to double-digit victories.

Over/Under: 8.5 Wins

Lawrence is entering the season coming off a career-best in passing yards, and touchdowns, and the defense should have enough grit, and talent to keep them competitive even if the offense takes a small step backward with the loss of a tenured, proven running game.

Will the Jaguars actually regress all the way back to mediocrity?

We don't think they will. Over.