Thursday Night Slaughter? Can Atlanta Cover vs. The Pack?

There are lots of reasons to be cautious about laying a touchdown with the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night.

Green Bay is 1-1. Jordan Love has completed just 52% of his passes through two games. Green Bay’s offensive line has already taken some hits, and the Packers needed overtime to get past the Jets last Sunday. Yet, this feels like the kind of matchup where Green Bay can finally put together a convincing performance. The Falcons fly into Lambeau Field at 0-2, having scored just 16 points in their first two games. More concerning, Atlanta is the only NFL team that has failed to reach the red zone through the opening two weeks. Now Michael Penix Jr. gets his first start of the season on a short week after recovering from a torn ACL. That's potentially a major upgrade over what Atlanta has received at quarterback, but it also creates plenty of questions about what Penix can realistically provide in his first game back.

Why Green Bay should win — and cover

• Atlanta's offense has been almost nonexistent. The Falcons have yet to reach the red zone this season. That isn't merely a bad statistic; it suggests an offense struggling to sustain drives and finish possessions.
• Penix is talented, but this is a difficult first assignment. Thursday night represents his first start of 2026 following major knee surgery. Throwing him into Lambeau on a short week against a Packers defense loaded with speed is a significant test.
• Green Bay's defense can make this uncomfortable. Atlanta has already struggled with turnovers and consistency in the passing game. If the Packers force Penix into obvious passing situations, the pressure shifts dramatically onto a quarterback playing his first meaningful football in months.
• The Packers don't need to score 40. This is the key to laying seven points. If Green Bay's defense produces a couple of short fields, the Packers could win something like 27-13 without Love needing a spectacular night.
• The environment matters. This is Green Bay's home opener, and the Packers are looking to build on an overtime victory over the Jets. Atlanta, meanwhile, is playing its third game in 11 days and now travels north for Thursday night football.
• Atlanta's defense has to stop Jordan Love. The Falcons have been aggressive defensively under Jeff Ulbrich, but that aggression could become a problem if Love gets the ball out quickly and Green Bay establishes the run.

The current market has Green Bay around -7, with the total in the mid-40s.

Biggest argument against the Packers is obvious. They haven't covered a spread yet this season, and Love's passing numbers haven't been impressive.

This isn't saying that Green Bay suddenly becomes an offensive juggernaut, but it's a call that Atlanta's offense remains a mess, that Penix isn't immediately back to midseason form, and that the Packers' defense creates enough opportunities for Love and company to pull away.

The Cover's call: Packers -7