THE COVER | NFL FUTURES Atlanta Falcons 2026 Futures Profile

Team: Atlanta Falcons
Division: NFC South
2025 Record: 8-9
2026 Projected Win Total: 7.5
Super Bowl Odds: +13000
NFC Championship: +5200
NFC South: +400
Make Playoffs: +240

Odds captured: September 3, 2026 | Odds subject to change

The Atlanta Falcons are absolutely an anomaly heading into this season. They could truly be a playoff team, or they could quickly implode, especially on offense.

After finishing 8-9 last season and missing the playoffs for the eighth consecutive year, Atlanta fired head coach Raheem Morris and replaced him with former Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski. The Falcons also added Tua Tagovailoa to a quarterback room that already includes 2024 first-round pick Michael Penix Jr., creating one of the more intriguing quarterback competitions in the league.

DraftKings currently has Atlanta's win total at 7.5, with the Under priced at -140 and the Over at +120. The Falcons are +400 to win the NFC South, +5200 to win the NFC and +13000 to win the Super Bowl, while they are +240 to make the playoffs.

Those numbers tell an interesting story.

Despite finishing 8-9 last season and sitting just one tiebreaker away from winning the NFC South, Atlanta is being treated as a team more likely to regress than take the next step. The Falcons are currently the longest shot to win the division at DraftKings, although the NFC South remains one of the weakest and most competitive divisions in football.

The biggest question is whether Coach Stefanski can bring stability to an organization that has been all over the place for some time.

Offensive Grade: B+

There is definitely no shortage of offensive talent.

Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts give Atlanta three legitimate weapons to build around. Robinson was particularly spectacular in 2025, rushing for 1,478 yards while adding 820 receiving yards. His 2,298 yards from scrimmage led the NFL, and he accounted for more than 40 percent of Atlanta's total offensive yardage.

That makes Robinson an ideal fit for Stefanski's offense.

The new Falcons head coach has traditionally leaned heavily on a wide-zone and play-action attack, and Robinson's vision, explosiveness and ability to create yards after contact make him perfectly suited to that system.

London also enters the season as Atlanta's clear No. 1 receiver, while Pitts is coming off a resurgent 2025 campaign in which he caught 88 passes for 928 yards and five touchdowns. The Falcons also added Jahan Dotson and rookie Zachariah Branch to improve the supporting cast around their established stars.

But there is one enormous question hanging over the entire offense.

Who is going to throw the football?

Penix started nine games in 2025, completing 60.1 percent of his passes for 1,982 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. He also suffered a season-ending ACL injury in November and has only recently been cleared for full football activity.

Tagovailoa was brought in partly to provide insurance while Penix recovered, but the former Dolphins starter has had his own health concerns. As of September 3, Atlanta still has not officially named its Week 1 starter.

That uncertainty makes it difficult to give this offense a higher grade.

There is plenty of talent here. The question is whether Atlanta can get consistent quarterback play.

Defensive Grade: B

The Falcons' defense presents a much more complicated picture.

There is plenty to like. Atlanta returns cornerback A.J. Terrell and safety Jessie Bates III, while the secondary also features promising young players such as Avieon Terrell and Xavier Watts.

The Falcons also retained defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich after the defense made significant progress in 2025. Atlanta recorded a franchise-record 57 sacks last season, an enormous improvement from the previous year.

There is one potentially huge problem.

Atlanta lost the two young edge rushers who helped produce that breakthrough.

Jalon Walker suffered a torn ACL in August and will miss the entire 2026 season, while James Pearce Jr. is suspended for the first eight games of the season. Pearce recorded 10.5 sacks as a rookie, while Walker was another important part of Atlanta's revamped pass rush.

The Falcons responded by signing three-time Pro Bowler Za'Darius Smith, who brings 70.5 career sacks and considerable veteran experience. Atlanta also added linebacker Christian Harris and edge rusher Samson Ebukam before trading for defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. just before the roster deadline.

Dexter is particularly interesting. The former second-round pick has started 33 games over his first three seasons and recorded 13.5 sacks, giving Atlanta another interior presence alongside Maason Smith and Brandon Dorlus.

Still, replacing Walker and Pearce is no easy task.

The Falcons are essentially asking veteran additions and defensive depth to compensate for the loss of two young pass rushers who were supposed to become the foundation of the defense.

If Ulbrich can keep the unit productive despite those losses, Atlanta could outperform expectations.

If the pass rush falls off dramatically, the defense could become the reason the Falcons struggle to stay above .500.

The Bet: Under 7.5 Wins (-140)

This is where Atlanta becomes a fascinating futures proposition.

At first glance, betting against an 8-9 team at 7.5 wins may seem overly pessimistic. But the Falcons' 2025 record doesn't tell the entire story.

Atlanta started last season 4-9 before winning its final four games. The Falcons ultimately finished tied with Tampa Bay and Carolina at 8-9, but lost the division on tiebreakers.

The problem is that Atlanta now has considerably more uncertainty than it did entering last season. Eight wins would be seen as highly probably, but it's a stretch to just assume that this team will get there.