Matthews and Hughes Aren’t Currently "MVPs", But The Athletic May Have Gone Too Far

Hart Trophy Odds: Connor McDavid +250 | Auston Matthews +1500 | Jack Hughes +2500

The Athletic's annual NHL Player Tiers arrived Wednesday, and one distinction immediately jumps off the page: Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov are considered MVP-tier players, while Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes are merely “Franchise” players, albeit, both have been tagged as "2A"

Maybe the gap isn't nearly as wide as the tiers suggest.

McDavid, MacKinnon and Kucherov certainly have the recent production to justify their placement. McDavid led the NHL with 138 points in 82 games last season, while Kucherov produced 130 points in 76 games and MacKinnon finished with 127 points. Kucherov ultimately won the Hart Trophy by the narrowest margin in the award's modern voting history.

But Matthews and Hughes aren't exactly distant relatives of the MVP conversation.

Matthews is a former Hart Trophy winner, a two-time 60-goal scorer and one of the most prolific goal scorers of his generation. His 2025-26 season was undeniably disappointing, with 27 goals and 53 points in 60 games , but he also dealt with injury and posted a career-low 11.9 shooting percentage. He has scored at least 30 goals in nine of his 10 NHL seasons.

Then there's Hughes.

At 25, Hughes is entering what should be the prime of his career. The Devils' star has already demonstrated 100-point upside, and NHL.com's current center rankings still place him 11th among NHL centers. More importantly, his +2500 Hart price is substantially longer than his talent would suggest if he returns to his pre-injury offensive trajectory.

McKenna Could Change Everything for Matthews

This is where Matthews becomes particularly interesting from a futures perspective.

Toronto's new No. 1 overall pick Gavin McKenna is an elite playmaker whose greatest strength may be his ability to create offense for others. NHL.com has specifically identified McKenna as a potential linemate for Matthews and notes that he could earn a spot on the top line and first power-play unit.

That could be enormously important.

Matthews doesn't suddenly need to become a better shooter. He needs opportunities to shoot. If McKenna can replace even a portion of the playmaking Toronto lost with Mitch Marner's departure, Matthews could see his goal total explode.

The Hart isn't simply an award for the league's best statistical player. The NHL defines it as the player “adjudged to be the most valuable to his team.” If Matthews scores 50-plus goals while carrying a dramatically improved Toronto team back into contention, the narrative practically writes itself.

The market currently has McDavid around +250, Matthews around +1500, and Hughes around +2500.

Those numbers tell a different story than The Athletic's tiers.

The Bet: Auston Matthews +1500 Hart Trophy

McDavid is the logical favorite. But at 15-1, Matthews represents the more interesting wager. If he stays healthy, returns to 40-to-50-goal territory and McKenna immediately becomes the playmaking catalyst Toronto hopes he will be, Matthews could go from “Franchise” to MVP conversation very quickly.

Prediction: Matthews finishes top-three in Hart voting, with +1500 offering legitimate value.

If The Athletic's ranking proves wrong, it may be one of those preseason evaluations that looks considerably more foolish by April than it does in September.